Gold Clinches Fourth Straight Monthly Gain, Nearing Record High as Markets Firm Rate-Cut Bets

Gold continued its powerful upward momentum this week, closing out its fourth straight monthly gain and inching closer to reclaiming record territory. Gold (GC=F) futures settled near $4,240 per ounce on Friday, putting the yellow metal within touching distance of its all-time high amid strengthening expectations for a December interest rate cut.

Why Gold Is Surging Again

A key driver behind gold’s renewed strength is the dovish tone from Federal Reserve officials. With policymakers signaling that economic conditions may warrant a shift toward easing, markets are now pricing in a high probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut next month.

Gold, which does not yield income, becomes more attractive when interest rates fall. Lower yields reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-interest-bearing assets, often fueling stronger inflows toward precious metals.

Approaching the October Record

Earlier this year, gold hit an all-time high of $4,336 per ounce on October 20 before experiencing a 10% pullback in early November. Despite that dip, gold has staged an impressive comeback.

In 2025 so far, gold prices have surged more than 60%, driven by:

• A weakening US Dollar (DX-Y.NYB)

• Growing expectations of sustained fiscal spending

• “Run-it-hot” economic policies projected into 2026

• Robust global central bank gold purchases

These factors continue to underpin long-term bullish sentiment.

Fiscal Policy & Tariff Plans Add Inflationary Pressure

According to Michele Schneider, chief strategist at MarketGauge.com, several elements of the current policy landscape are fueling inflation expectations — which typically boosts gold.

“We have a tremendous deficit, tremendous government spending, and a tremendous amount of central bank buying,” Schneider said in an interview with Yahoo Finance.

Adding to that momentum, President Trump recently doubled down on his plan to eliminate income tax, saying it could be replaced by revenue generated from his aggressive tariff policies.

On Thanksgiving, Trump reiterated:

“Over the next couple of years, I think we’ll be substantially cutting, and maybe cutting out completely, income tax.”

Trump has also floated the idea of a $2,000 ‘tariff dividend’ for non-high-income Americans — a policy analysts say could further elevate inflation risks.

“These comments are very inflationary, and that’s what gold is responding to,” Schneider noted, forecasting a gold price target of $4,700 by 2026.

Despite Volatility, Analysts Remain Bullish

Following the largest one-day sell-off in over a decade, gold still retains strong bullish momentum. Analysts cite two key pillars supporting gold’s long-term strength:

1. Central Bank Buying:Countries diversifying away from the US dollar continue to increase their gold reserves at the fastest pace in decades.

2. Rising ETF Inflows:Investor interest in gold-backed exchange-traded funds remains strong as markets brace for economic uncertainty and potential policy shifts.

With these drivers in place, gold appears poised for its best yearly performance since 1979, marking one of the most remarkable rallies in modern financial history.

Outlook: Can Gold Break Its Record Again?

With a December rate cut now highly anticipated, inflationary policy chatter heating up, and broad investor demand strengthening, gold’s path toward reclaiming—and possibly surpassing—its record high looks increasingly possible.

If fiscal expansion and tariff-based revenue strategies continue to dominate policy discussions, analysts say the next major milestone could be $4,700 per ounce in the medium term.

For now, gold’s sustained momentum signals that bullion remains a standout asset in a rapidly shifting global economy.