Gold Price Analysis: XAU/USD Extends Record Rally as Bulls Dominate
- Top Notch Traders
- Sep 5, 2025
- 2 min read
Updated: Sep 6, 2025
Technical Overview
The daily chart for XAU/USD (Gold) reflects strong bullish momentum, with the metal pushing into uncharted territory and setting new records almost hourly. Despite entering extreme overbought conditions, technical indicators continue to point firmly north, showing no immediate signs of exhaustion.
The pair is currently trading well above its moving averages, with the 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) accelerating higher around $3,391, reinforcing the upside bias.
On the 4-hour chart, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) consolidates near 84, a level that typically signals overbought conditions. Meanwhile, the Momentum indicator is showing minor fatigue but remains within extreme bullish territory. The 20 SMA continues climbing almost vertically, positioned more than $150 above the mildly bullish 100 and 200 SMAs, confirming alignment with higher highs in the near term.
Key Levels to Watch:
Support: $3,551.40 • $3,538.90 • $3,526.60
Resistance: $3,580.00 • $3,600.00 • $3,615.00
Fundamental Overview
Gold extended its record-breaking rally on Wednesday, advancing for the seventh consecutive session and surpassing $3,570 for the first time ever. The move was driven by persistent risk aversion and robust safe-haven demand, keeping the metal well-supported through the mid-American session. With momentum building, traders are now eyeing the next major threshold at $3,600.
Safe-haven flows were fueled by global bond market jitters. Yields on long-term government debt surged, with the UK 30-year gilt reaching multi-year highs on Tuesday, triggering concerns about sustainability in sovereign debt markets.
The US Dollar (USD) initially found some stability amid the broader risk-off sentiment but weakened after the release of disappointing labor market data, further boosting gold.
According to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), Job Openings in July fell to 7.18 million, below both June’s revised figure of 7.35 million and the market expectation of 7.4 million. The softer-than-expected report added pressure on the USD while strengthening the bullish case for gold.
What’s Next? Upcoming Events
Market attention now shifts to upcoming US labor and economic data, which will likely dictate the short-term direction of gold.
Key Events to Watch:
Event | Actual | Forecast | Previous |
USD Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) | 0.3% | 0.3% | — |
USD Non-Farm Employment Change | 75K | 73K | — |
USD Unemployment Rate | 4.3% | 4.2% | — |
The ADP Employment Change report (private payrolls) and the ISM Services PMI are in focus ahead of Friday’s critical Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report. Given gold’s extended rally, softer US data could further fuel upside momentum, while strong figures may trigger a corrective pullback.
Outlook
Gold remains in a powerful bullish phase, supported by technical strength and fundamental risk aversion. While the metal is undeniably overbought in the short term, the absence of exhaustion signals suggests that momentum could carry it toward $3,600–$3,615 before any meaningful correction.
Traders should watch US employment data closely, as it will set the tone for both Federal Reserve policy expectations and USD flows, which remain the primary drivers of gold’s trajectory.
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