What to Watch This Week for XAU/USD (Gold vs USD)

Gold price (XAU/USD) flirting with new record highs amid Fed rate-cut expectations.

Overview

Gold (XAU/USD) remains on a sizzling rally, recently hitting fresh record highs above $3,600 per ounce. Driving this surge are elevated expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, a softer U.S. dollar, and ongoing global economic and geopolitical uncertainties. Traders are now eyeing key U.S. inflation data to determine if the pace of the rally can continue toward $3,700.Reuters+1Financial Times

Key Data & Events to Watch

Day	Event / Data	Why It Matters for XAU/USD
Wednesday	U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI)	Could signal inflation trends—sub-par data supports gold rallies.Reuters
Thursday	U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI)	A soft CPI would deepen Fed dovish outlook, boosting gold further.Reuters+1
Ongoing	Fed Policy Speculation & Market Reaction	Expectations of a rate cut are fueling demand for gold.Reuters+1Financial Times
All Week	Global Geopolitical/Monetary Developments	Unrest, elections, or central bank decisions can amplify safe-haven demand.Reuters

FXStreet notes gold recently broke out of a multi-month range with robust momentum, though overbought conditions suggest potential short-term retracements.FXStreet Meanwhile, TradingView commentary highlights technical resistance and key support zones — bulls remain dominant, but caution is advised near high levels.TradingView

What to Expect & Trading Outlook

• Bullish Bias ContinuesThe net sentiment remains strongly bullish, driven by high probability (>80%) of at least one 25 bp Fed rate cut this month.Reuters+1

• Potential “Sell the News” DipIf CPI/PPI data disappoints by coming in better than expected, there may be a short-lived pullback. However, overall momentum remains upward.

• Technical Pullback ZonesTradingView suggests support around 3558–3563, with further support at 3538–3545. If breached, deeper correction toward 3500 could follow.TradingView

• Upside Ceiling TargetsIf dovish data comes through, gold could easily test $3,700, with upside momentum supported by weaker yields and Fed positioning.

Trading Strategies (PKT Focus for Lahore Traders)

• Time Your Trades by Session

  • London–New York Overlap (5:00 PM – 9:00 PM PKT) is prime for gold volatility and liquidity.EBC Financial Group

  • Early sessions (Sydney/Tokyo) might be quieter—suiting setup preparation.

• Pre-Event PositioningReduce positions ahead of CPI/PPI releases. Let the data land first, then act on confirmed direction.

• Manage Risk on PullbacksIf gold dips toward identified support zones, view that as potential buying opportunities—unless the breakdown is confirmed technically.

• Watch Forex CorrelationsSince gold prices are inversely correlated with the U.S. dollar and U.S. Treasury yields, movements in those markets will influence XAU/USD.

Summary

This week, XAU/USD is positioned to outperform, supported by dovish Fed expectations, weak dollar pressure, and fragile global sentiment. Watch U.S. inflation data (PPI on Wednesday, CPI on Thursday) as key catalysts. Expect continued rallies if data disappoints, or a brief pullback if data surprises decisively to the upside. Strategically, patience and structured entry around support zones offer prudent setups.